Political Betting Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by GearSolidMetal, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    yeah I didn't bit at that price really, I mean I thought she would drift if macron made it through to 2nd round which he has, and la penn's drifted a lot too +620 currently! so there's a lot more room for swings in the odds at that price. a lot can happen in a couple of weeks before the 2nd round.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
  2. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    1st round is very close atm, macron leads by a couple % but la penn is catching apparently. don't think she'll bridge the gap but I'm not knowledgeable at all about what results are left to come in, bar the overseas results that should be heavily in favour of macron, even more so seen as they can vote twice
     
  3. UAK

    UAK Purple Belt

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    Which site? That's basically free money.
     
  4. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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  5. UAK

    UAK Purple Belt

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    You could almost make a case for 1.01 being value.. lol, she must be 99,9% to finish in top 2 at this point. Even before the counting started I would have laid the house on 1.25. How much did you get in? That was probably the best line in the whole election, rare to see -400 being so fkn awesome.
     
  6. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    it probably is value at this point tbh probably just people wanting to get their liability back cheaply to use elsewhere. I didn't get a lot on it at all tbh small amount, I Was trading the outright market and 1st round winner at the same time so I missed the boat mostly on that market. was being cautious as well as it's a lot harder to get real time info than the US election for example.
     
  7. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    + the wifi where I'm at is spotty tonight, can't be too risky
     
  8. Slohog

    Slohog Green Belt

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    Think it goes like we kind of thought, Le Pen gets to the 2nd round but can't do much there. Think my decision to pass on this election was fairly good, missed some lines that had value but got really confused by these french fucks at other times.
     
  9. waiguoren

    waiguoren Brown Belt

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    Since I can't understand French, I have turned to "expert" Nate Silver for analysis. It seems that Le Pen is behind by some 20% vs Macron.
     
  10. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Things are getting interesting, Melenchon said he couldn't chose between the two candidates so there is a risk of the left just staying home.

    Juncker congratulating Macron can also be a kiss of death, the French doesn't really like the EU that Juncker represents.

    I'm taking a stab at Le Pen @6.00, I think there is value there. She probably won't win, but it's worth a shot.
     
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  11. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    I'm thinking she may trade lower at some point but I'm having a hard time seeing her winning o/r. i'm taking a week of this politics crap, made my money, too much politics is bad for my brain lol.
    busy time for the rest of the year though,with the UK and german elections, at least the UK ones is easy enough to cap, torries are going to hump labour into oblivian. tory majority @ 1.16ish actually looks value atm haha
     
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  12. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    so la penn is still like 20+ points down in the polls and she's shortened slightly to 9.4 which i don't really get. macron @1.11 looks value all things considering, surely he will trade lower than that.. bar a huge scandal which seems to of failed so far when la penn was talking about his secret offshore bank accounts.
     
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  13. waiguoren

    waiguoren Brown Belt

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    Unless French polling is far worse than US polling, fair to say this one is over.
     
  14. 1.11

    1.11 Yellow Belt

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    put some respek on my name
     
  15. Barkus

    Barkus Brown Belt

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    I'm with you here. Where are her new votes going to come from? The lefty and centrist votes that were split in the first vote will now almost exclusively go to Marcon. There's just no realistic path to victroy for Le Pen here. I'm on Marcon as a 10-1 favorite.
     
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  16. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    he's down to 1.06 today, currently still a little value on that i reckon, he should be lower still, the hack is the only thing keeping the odds from being 1.01/1.02. that and casuals lumping on la penn because of some perceived brexit/trump parallels.
     
  17. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Orange Belt

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    Unibet had 2.0 for Le Penn getting more than 39.5% of the votes. She was at 38% in polls and 1.5 % of lurker turnout sounds plausible, so I gave it a shot.
     
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  18. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    slightly lower turnout than the last election also which may favor la penn as her voters are more loyal
     
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  19. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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  20. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    lol, la penn's father came out saying she isn't fit to be president, seems he's pissed after she kicked him out of his own party.
     

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