Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 25, 2017.
That's a great shout. Nearly all their fights go under, no idea why it's set at 2.5.
You doing a double for this card?
Yeah niqqa we gotta know
Yeah ive gone the mexican route as this card sucks. Two muthafuckers who are gonna fight for my money and have been training in mexico city. Welcome quinones and bravo!
Trying to catch up with the thread, been on vacation and I don't hardly recognize any of these fighters i'm embarrassed to say. I guess you have to watch tough Latin American? It is weird that Rashad Evans and Sam Alvey are on this card let alone sandwiched in the middle of it LOL
The only bets that I have made our Sergio and Evans at +140 and +130 respectively for 3.5 units apiece respectively.
I'll read through the thread and see if you guys are on anyone in particular.
@Joseph Budden what are your main bets for tonight?
How do you like rinaldi here? I went with quin/rinaldi as my double
Two parlays for this event. Lets get it.
Sam alvey + Alejandro perez $500 for $1k
Joseph Morales + Dustin Ortiz + Rani Yahya $155 for $500
Yeah like him and considered him. Only things that put me off were moontsari laying him the fuck out and herrera can bang and also arriving in mexico late. But herrera has an awful gas tank and looked horrible at weigh ins at 155. Hope i dont regret passing him up. Prob gonna hit his itd line
Damn JG, I think that you is crazy LOL I went back and re-watched the Dan Kelly and Rashad Evans fight and I actually came away pretty damn impressed with Evans given the circumstances. That is to say, he had been injured and hadn't fought for a really long time. Moreover, he was making his debut at 185 pounds. Physically he looked excellent and he was actually pulling the trigger. Dan Kelly is just an awkward guy to fight against and if you don't put his lights out early he can drag you to deep water and make things look ugly. He's like a sloppier version of Jake Shields LOL
.. but Sam is definitely not somebody that I would trust to have a big play on! I mean, the dude is so apathetic at times that he looks like the nurses aide who just found out she has to empty the bedpans. Indeed, he is overly nonchalant in the cage, where he often appears to be contemplating on what he will watch on Netflix with his wife tonight. I mean, she's hot, hell, that's what I'd be thinking. LOL
The inactivity of Sam is just a bad though. Like If he doesn't get that knock out shot early he's usually left making a very mean face for 15 minutes and an even meaner face after the decision is ready.
Yes Rashad is NOT the Rashad that won the light heavyweight title five years ago but I also do not believe that he is shot to the point that he can't get by a plodding Smilin Sam.
Evans is going to have a speed advantage, a striking advantage, his footwork is leagues better (STILL) and his wrestling is on another level as well. What's more, though Evans is basically a ghost of his former self, the former self was an A- level fighter whereas Alvey has never been more than a C+ at best.
Furthermore, it isn't like Rashad is coming out and getting melted in the first round a la Josh Burkman. Rather he has been inactive and his last fight against a very scrappy Daniel Kelly should have probably been a win according to most observers.
I remember when Shogun was shot, Jim Miller shot, Gray Maynard shot, etc. Losing to top ranked fighters makes it appear far worse than the truth. At any rate, losing to Ryan Bader by decision and getting knocked out by Glover is a far cry from getting washed by Sam Alvey. And again, Dan Kelly isn't a pushover. Ergo, to take your middleweight debut against Dan Kelly after an 11 month absence in a fight you could have won does not scream bet Sam Alvey to me.
BOL though bro. I'm not saying Evans is a lock or anything close to it LOL
Quinones, o2.5 Ortiz/Sand, Jouban, Moreno nsc, Sanchez nsc, o2.5 Perez/Souk
Last event was the worst event ever, never done so badly. Went 0-4 on bets, how is that even possible, still surprised.
I know I'm a top bettor but over confidence is an issue. Stings real bad when I bet Kailin Curran and she loses. I know she's not a good fighter but she was in a good position to win, her opponent was inexperienced and coming off a massive layoff and Curran had been steadily improving.
But I don't know what this girls problem is, does she hate winning? She is 1-5 in the UFC, that is the worst record in UFC history for a woman. Why even compete if you don't wanna win.
Now I can't even play this event, all I can think about is Kailin Curran's 1-5 UFC record and my willingness to bet her, it honestly makes me sick.
I got these ZeesMMA picks though
Now point to the easy work
I like alvey ko at +190 a lot, very small at Humberto itd at +550, 2 team parlay at Moreno + grasso $75 to win $120.
Ive heard the best combination is to train at sea level ( where you can train longer, harder ) and to sleep at elevation ( your blood cells / hemoglobin saturation adapt to the conditions while sleeping ).
Thats what i heard. I think tj on rogans podcast talked about that being the most optimal for performance and it makes sense
I'm in the same boat, brother. Lost a lot on Curran, not devastating, but then chased to make it worse. I think the thing I take away from that bout is that in the lower levels of MMA, you can get away with quite a bit just by being a better, stronger athlete.
How I deal with it is rationalize it like I did above and move on and try not to make the same mistake again. Then begin grinding again. Works everytime.
I think there's some outside the box plays you have to consider on this card solely due the altitude and there's a level of unpredictability to who actually ends up gassing the worst. Some are just odds based plays that are unlikely, but I think maybe have a better chance of hitting than the odds say due to (as I said) what the altitude can do.
Price dec +670. I mean, at these odds, why not? Jouban went to Mexico City just a week ago, if both guys gas and this is a sloppy mess after 7 or 8 minutes, this isn't THAT hard to imagine hitting.
Moreno dec +375. Again, if this is a relatively close fight where Pettis gets the better of it striking but Moreno hits some TD's we could see both guys really tired after 3 rds. At that point, who knows? Moreno could end up laying on Pettis for 2 rounds where he's too tired to aggressively try to finish, but Pettis is too tired to try to get back up.
Bandenay dec +420. Again, who knows with the altitude. I don't think Bravo should be such a big favorite at all, but I also don't really see Bandenay finishing. Odds are worth a stab imo Again, would anyone at all be shocked if Bravo gassed harder?
Soukamthath dec +265. Basically I could just keep repeating myself. I really don't think Souk gets finished here, and I know there's people on his NSC line. I am too, but for a little more aggressive play I like his dec line too.
And I already talked earlier about how much I like Briones dec +375, Yahya is maybe the most likely guy on the card to gas.
Also that I like Alvey KO +270.
I have some ML plays too of course, but I think this may end up being a card where I bet less overall and a higher % of my action is on props than normal with a better chance of big payouts if I hit some props.
I like some overs too, Hermannson/Scott o2.5, Jouban/Price o1.5 I both like a lot.
I also think this could be a card with a lot of fights going to the cards as guys gas and can't go for a finish as time goes by and they are tired. I'm playing all the over props at 6.5 and up going to decision.
^^great post. Agreed. Looking back mexico city = decision city.
I agree with everything you said except the Bandenay part.
Bravo is a guy known for his pressure and great cardio, his teammates say that he probably has the best cardio in the entire team. He has been training in Mexico City for 3 weeks IIRC. I would be shocked if Bravo gasses harder than Bandenay, who is a guy that took the fight on short notice. Bardenay doesn't look good on tape at all, and I wouldn't bet on a guy that tapped to a forearm choke 1.5 years ago.
UFC 180 in Mexico City had 8 finishes / 3 decisions
UFC 188 in Mexico City had 3 finishes / 8 decisions